Social infrastructure is the best performing segment among all country income groupings, according to new data from Moody’s that provides insights into the debt performance for infrastructure industry sector. Social infrastructure includes healthcare, education and public (community housing, prisons) facilities. The data also reveals transport and energy infrastructure perform differently in relative terms for depending on country income grouping.
The highest recoveries on infrastructure debt default occurs in Africa, the Middle East and Eastern Europe, according to new data from Moody’s shows which regions of the world have the highest and lowest default rates on infrastructure and other project finance debt investments. Ultimate recovery refers to a loan default for which recoveries have been realized following emergence from default. Emergence from default occurs when overdue interest is repaid or with liquidation or restructuring with no subsequent default or lender being taken out of the deal after repaying the defaulted loan.
Over the past decade, global private investment into infrastructure has amounted to around USD 100-150 billion annually, excluding secondary market transactions.
In 2019, renewables attracted the largest amount of private investment among infrastructure sectors, followed by transport and non-renewable power. Renewables accounted for 40% of total private infrastructure investment in 2019. Meanwhile, private investment in social infrastructure (healthcare, education and public facilities) has declined over the past decade from USD 19 billion in 2010 to USD 3 billion in 2019.
Private infrastructure investment is dominated by high-income countries. In 2019, more than 80% of global private infrastructure investment was in high-income countries, with particularly strong investment in the renewables sector. High-income countries attract more than triple the amount of capital invested in middle- and low-income countries.
While total infrastructure investment with private participation has increased over the past decade, this has been driven by secondary market transactions. Primary market transactions are low and have been declining.
Private investment in social infrastructure has seen a sharp decline over the past decade, driven by the healthcare and social housing sub-sectors. In the transport sector, around half of private investment over the past decade has been in the roads, tunnels and bridges sub-sector.
Europe has seen the largest number of infrastructure transactions with private participation over the past decade, although the average value of these transactions tends to be relatively small compared with other regions.
The value of private investment in PPP infrastructure has gradually declined over the past decade.
Globally, foreign equity in private infrastructure deals amounted to around 12% of total private infrastructure investment over the past decade, with Sub-Saharan Africa having a particularly high reliance on foreign equity.
Sustainable low-carbon private investments have intensified in high-income countries. To strengthen global response to combat climate change, such investments must be accelerated in developing countries.
Private infrastructure investment in low-income countries is almost entirely denominated in foreign currencies, implying a structural foreign exchange risk for investors.
Over the past decade, about three-quarters of private infrastructure investment globally was debt financed, and about a quarter was equity financed.
Infrastructure equities have an attractive risk-return profile providing a competitive alternative to other investment options.
Merchant infrastructure, larger investors and the transport sector have experienced larger declines in returns due to COVID-19.
New insights from the GI Hub’s Infrastructure Monitor and InfraCompass show that a strong enabling environment matters for encouraging more private infrastructure investment, regardless of income level.