Written by BNEF
20 August 2019
Focused on the electricity system, BloombergNEF s (BNEF s) New Energy Outlook (NEO) combines the expertise of over 65 market and technology specialists in 12 countries to provide a unique view of how the market will evolve. Each year BNEF makes a number of changes to NEO as they strive to improve the completeness and complexity of their analysis. In 2019, they have: Added new scenarios on 2 degrees, electrified heat and road transport, and updated our coal phase-out scenario. Added new sections on coal and gas power technology, the future grid, energy access, policy and the LCOE of phase II decarbonisation technology such as CCS, biogas, hydrogen fuel cells, nuclear and solar thermal. Split Japan modelling into two grids, published sub-national results for China, split hydro into run-of-river and reservoir, added commercial electric vehicles, expanded our air-conditioning analysis and modeled Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Turkey and Southeast Asia in greater detail. Click on the link to BNEF s website to see graphs associated with their 10 key Findings: 1. Wind and solar make up almost 50% of world electricity in 2050 - \"50 by 50\" - and help put the power sector on track for 2 degrees to at least 2030. 2. A 12TW expansion of generating capacity requires about $13.3 trillion of new investment between now and 2050 - 77% of which goes to renewables. 3. Europe decarbonises furthest, fastest. Coal-heavy China and gas-heavy U.S. play catch-up. 4. Wind and solar are now cheapest across more than two-thirds of the world. By 2030 they undercut commissioned coal and gas almost everywhere. 5. Consumer energy decisions such as rooftop solar and behind-the-meter batteries help shape an increasingly decentralised grid the world over. 6. Batteries, gas peakers and dynamic demand help wind and solar reach more than 80% penetration in some markets. 7. Coal continues to grow in Asia, but collapses everywhere else and peaks globally in 2026. 8. Gas-fired power grows just 0.6% per year to 2050, supplying system back-up and flexibility rather than bulk electricity in most markets. 9. Make heat and transport electric lowers emissions. The challenge is scale. 10. To keep an electrified energy sector on a 2-degree trajectory, we will need to deploy additional zero-carbon technologies that are dispatchable and economic running at low capacity factors, or technology that can capture and sequester emissions at scale.
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